If they get it wrong again this year then, come the end of June, another so called 'dark horse' will be crowned as champions. It's certainly a possibility and realistically anyone could become a challenger if they can build up momentum in the early stages. So, if I had a spare £20 (which I don't) and fancied a flutter on an outsider (which I do), who would it be? While I think Ireland will surprise a few people, especially anyone of Italian descent and, if the food poisoning can be overcome so too will the Ukraine on home soil, I can't see either contesting the final.
However my (fictitious) £20 note would be placed on Russia.
Of course it's hard to look beyond the Spanish side but remember, no country has ever successfully defended the European Championships. Remember too that David Villa was instrumental in both of their recent successes and, without him, they will have to find a way to get goals out of that guy who used to score for fun a few years back. Plenty of other nations can rightly claim to have more star-studded squads, more players who have played in Champions League or World Cup finals and certainly far more punters backing them with their hard earned cash but I honestly think the Russians are potential winners of this competition.
So why Russia, I hear you ask? Well there are a number of reasons but I've managed to narrow them down to four for the purpose of this entry.
Firstly, the Russian football encyclopedia that is John Bradley (LFCtv) told me so. Well, if I'm honest, he didn't exactly say Russia would win but he did think they had a chance and if anyone knows the veritable strengths and weaknesses of Dick Advocaat's side it is Mr. Bradley. Not only that but he also assumed control of my Dream Team, cast aside three players I had foolishly selected, and replaced them with the Russians to watch - more on them later.
Secondly, the manager. Advocaat is a clever, at times under-rated, coach who knows how to organise a side. I know Rangers fans have blamed him for their financial woes but, lets face it, if a manager is told money is available to spend he's going to spend it. Undoubtedly he has had more clubs than Tiger Woods, and not all of these have been successful, but he is a strong character who makes his own decisions - no matter how unpopular. The only possible negative I have for Advocaat is the fact that, when the tournament ends, he is leaving the post to return to PSV which rarely promotes team unity during a competition (with the obvious exception of El Tel in 1996). That aside the 'Little General' has the experience to take Russia to the latter stages. My third reason is simply the strength of their squad. It may not have as many star names as the likes of England or Spain but big names alone don't win tournaments. Russia has effective, disciplined players in almost every department with a sprinkling of star quality in the areas that matter. Not many goalkeepers in the competition will be as good as Akinfeev (JB's first pick) of CSKA Moscow. Defensively they are solid and, marshaled superbly by Ignashevik, conceded only four goals in ten qualifying matches including seven shut-outs. But this Russian side has much more than mere defensive stability, they also have an attacking threat which I believe can see them through their group with ease and past a tricky quarter final tie against either Germany or Holland. The obvious name is the much maligned Andrei Arshavin who, despite having a fairly horrendous two years, still has the ability to light up this competition as he did the last. Form is temporary and all that, and people would be wise to recall just how good he was in 2008 (Liverpool fans may also recall another more recent example...).However, that Russian side over relied on his ability to win matches with a flash of brilliance or a goal out of nothing. This one carries a far greater threat created around the diminutive Arsenal schemer.
It is in midfield that Bradley provided me with his two other recommendations. Roman Shirokov, the 30 year old Zenit midfielder who has perhaps left it late to announce himself to the world, times his runs into the box from deep with perfection. Not prolific by any stretch of the imagination, Shirokov has begun to score with greater frequency in recent seasons but his best attribute remains linking with those in front of him - namely Arshavin and Alan Dzagoev. What is perhaps most surprising about Dzagoev is the fact that, despite playing for CSKA Moscow in the Champions League almost four years ago, he is still only 21 years old. In fact he has also scored goals in big matches in Europe's elite competition; against Manchester Utd in a 3-3 draw a few years ago and Real Madrid in the knockout stages this season. Described by former manager Guus Hiddink as "...a really clever player with the ability to make a killer pass...", Dzagoev could be the star of the tournament this summer.
My final reason for backing Russia could, admittedly, form the basis of any argument against them winning Euro 2012. The draw has given them, in my opinion, an excellent chance to win through to the knock out stages in style. Facing Greece, Poland and the Czech Republic allows them to build up momentum and confidence in a way no other potential winner can. As a result, facing a superpower in the quarter final, should not faze Advocaat and his players. By then they should have scored a few goals and his attacking players could be playing with the swagger most would expect to see from the Dutch or Germans. To suggest that Russia can't win the competition because the draw pits them against either of these two in the quarters is to ignore the fact that all potential opponents in the knockout round will have quality.
When Greece shocked Europe eight years ago they did so by defending deep and playing on the break. Despite their negativity, and the criticism it attracted, Otto Rehhagel's tactics that year proved successful. My pick for 'dark horses' this year will not adopt a similar approach because Russia, perhaps more like the Danes in 1992, have quality attacking players who can split defences with a pass, whilst still denying opponents the opportunity to score. If Arshavin and Dzagoev can perform as well as Brian Laudrup did all those years ago, Russia has a chance.
Who are your 'dark horses' for the Euros?
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