Will England win Euro 2012?

No.

Sorry were you hoping for a longer answer? Ok, I'll try my best.

First of all I'll say it's not impossible for England, or any of the other fifteen nations competing in Poland and the Ukraine, to win the competition-just look at Greece in 2004. The appointment of Roy Hodgson will, in my opinion, actually increase their chances as opposed to being led by Capello or 'Arry. Hodgson is perfectly suited to the England job because he is excellent at setting up a team that is hard to beat. He transformed a Fulham side on course for relegation into Europa League finalists and did a similar job with West Brom before succeeding Capello. His record on the international stage is not to be sniffed at either with Switzerland (who many forget were ranked 3rd in the world under Hodgson) doing particularly well. Where he struggles is when he is expected to set up teams to dominate matches as was emphasisied by failures at Blackburn, who had been Champions of England only two years earlier, and Liverpool.

But England have tried to be the best in the world on too many occasions; tried to outplay opponents with their 'Golden Generation'. It simply doesn't work, and won't work until the coaching philosophy passed only recently by FA bigwigs (revamping the current youth regulations on pitch size and small sided formats) comes to fruition. Until then England must make do with what they have and Hodgson has the track record to make them competitive. Take the recent friendly victory over Belgium as evidence of my point. England were awful on their own pitch as the visitors, albeit a highly talented team of individuals, bossed possession for long periods. But England found that one moment of brilliance and won the match. If that had been a group match in a tournament then few would care about the performance come the final standings; only points matter. It is surely not beyond the realms of fantasy to think England could achieve similar success against teams like Ukraine and Sweden in the next couple of weeks.

So why then do I discount their chances? I do so because I can't imagine them pulling it off six times in six matches. I can't see how, with the inability to keep possession for more than twenty seconds at a time, England can possibly overcome a Germany, Holland or Spain. Yes, Hodgson will make them compact and hard to break down, and of course their opponents may have a bad day in front of goal (hands up who immediately thought of Torres?) but to win this competition that would have to happen at least four times. I say four because France fall (just) into this category and I expect England to be chasing the ball for most of that game too. If, and it's a big if for me, the Three Lions make it through the group they could face current holders, and World Champions, Spain. Many are suggesting that the Spanish are on the wane but I find this ridiculous. No team will play to the standards they have set since 2008 in every match but, come the tournament, they will still be the team to beat. As a result I believe England have to win their group to have any hope of making the semis but, even then, they would have to hold the ball better against (potentially) a good Croatia side. Perhaps the ideal scenario for Hodgson would be Ireland progressing from Group C behind Spain. Although the local rivalry issue will stoke up the atmosphere, Trapattoni's boys cant keep the ball either so England's big players should be capable of conjuring a goal out of nowhere.

 In many ways, an England success this summer, could be bad news. It would justify the views of many who think the current system of development in Britain is fine.It is not fine - it is rubbish and Gareth Southgate needs plenty of credit for fighting hard for the recent changes. The failings of the current system were highlighted recently by Michael Owen, who tweeted to say his 6 year old son had lost the final of junior tournament on penalties. There is so much wrong with that sentence it is incredible-and I'm not referring to Owen having a child! The fact that children are competing is wrong to begin with. Go to the best footballing nations in the world and you will see the focus on improving individuals in terms of ball control, passing, heading, all the basics. Come to Britain and it's parents living out their failed football careers through their kids; screaming and shouting on the touchline at frightened children. The fact that the organisers thought winning was so important that a penalty shoot out was required just defies belief.

Most bookmakers have England at 14-1 to bring home the trophy. So a wager of £100 will mean...you lose £100. Lets hope so anyway-for the sake of English (and British) football.

Do you agree with my assessment of England's chances? What about the idea of winning regardless of player progression?